On 2/8/2022 PNC published an update, and Keith John stated,...

On 2/8/2022 PNC published an update, and Keith John stated, “Management has taken significant steps to be positioned to take advantage of a very favourable market place [for PDLs] and to return the Company to profitability. We look forward to delivering that for shareholders.” In contrast, CCP issued a negative view on the PDL prospects in Australia – “In the absence of a sizeable one-off purchase AU/NZ PDL earnings will continue to run-off.”

Is the Australian PDL market place for PDLs favourable, or not? I suspect the answer lies in the middle – not as favourable as Keith John suggests, and not as unfavourable as CCP has suggested. An alternative view is that by entering both the Unsecured Loan business and the USA market years ago, CCP has achieved what it set out to do, that is have options as to where it should deploy funds, and thus be able to stick to its policy of only buying PDLs that meet CCP's profitability targets.

In the FY22 Annual Report, CCP stated the big-picture opinion, “Credit Corp is well-positioned to continue to perform strongly in the future.”, which contradicts the no-growth NPAT and EPS guidance. My view is that when Management makes a general statement like that, it reflects Management's opinion, but the Guidance is substantially based on locked-in facts, forward-flow agreements for PDLs, for instance.

I have not uncovered sufficient information to form a view on the ANZ supply of PDLs in FY23 and the year or two later. Credit card statistics, especially information on overdue payments is what I am yet to locate.