Ann: Credit Corp Group FY24 Results Presentation, page-2

Even excluding the impairment, the business was tracking below FY2023 which was down on FY2022 and that seemed a result of ability to replenish PDLs becoming more difficult and hence raising the relative cost of collections on the existing (smaller) PDL balance.

The FY2024 result also had a change in PDL valuation upwards (~21m) which partly offset the impairment of ~65m flagged earlier in the FY, so the beat to guidance was not as impressive as it initially looks.

If we put FY24 in the rear view mirror, it does appear to be some green shoots at least on the PDL purchasing side, and elevated ANZ lending book will provide some buffer while they grow their PDLs.......hence it appears growth is back on track.....EPS guidance of ~140c at midpoint even based on the higher price today of ~$16 only implies a PE of ~11.5.

Question is whether brokers will rerate this or whether mgmt still have to prove they can execute before they are out of the sin-bin

BTW they did ~$48m in NPAT in 2H once we adjust out the PDL life cycle adjustment of $15m.....so ~$96m for FY2025 should be the baseline and they should be able to do ~$105m in NPAT if PDLs start growing again.