Historically, CCP updates its guidance a few times a year, and the last guidance for the year has typically been in May. In 2019 there was an April 2020 Guidance Update provided in the report called “Market update and equity raising 1 April 2019”. In March 2020 the earlier guidance for FY20 was withdrawn due to the Covid-19 panic, and I am unsure if there was an update prior to the FY20 Results Presentation.
I wonder if we will get a guidance update this coming May. I am fairly bullish that we will see an improved guidance, because most updates for many years have been positive improvements, and the the acquired CLH collections book is now better known than before. The CLH collections book was only acquired in late December 2020, so Management would have had less hands-on experience with the book to factor into the 2 February 2021 Guidance Update.
Further, if CCP over impaired its collections book in FY20, which I think it did, that over impairment would dribble in as increased profit via the better-than-expected collections.
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