it will take some time, but most likely price will pick up next week once everyone is back from their holidays.
It is quite impossible for the price of EUR to remain where it is. It should be between 10-20% lmax ower than the NASDAQ valuation.
Why? Assuming CRML maintains its current trading $11 price, which is 7.8% higher - meaning EUR's share value of CRML is now $809 million. Total CRML valuation would be roughly $1.05 billion. This should carry to EUR's share price as well, we will be severely undervalued NAV wise.
This being the case there is 1) a major arbitrage opportunity for the big boys. 2) Any major fund can easily buy EUR shares on the cheap, then control $809 million worth of a NASDAQ company (assuming all the shares are bought), but more realistically - 51% is bought, assuming at even double the EUR share price now of $0.20, that is only A$280M and 51% control is only worth US$96 million and you get control of a $809 million company with assets. After which internally they can make changes and swap the shares and sell in the US markets if need be for a handsome profit.
Of course they will buy till just below the threshold and work in tandem with 2 or 3 other funds to not trigger any buyout offer, unless it really makes sense to do so.
the best part is that if CRML's share price hits $15 any time within 5 years, then EUR can earn an additional 10% or 7.4 million more shares. if that happens then EUR's share value (assuming no sales) in CRML will be $1.2 billion, with the total market cap of CRML being $1.52 billion @ $15.
Anything less than 50-60% is a no brainer, buy up and control EUR and drip sell CRML then declare a dividend to EUR shareholders and being a 51% collective holders of EUR, they get a nice profit. Even with EUR at $0.50 or A$700 million market cap (US$469), 51% is a mere US$240 million, selling 30% of CRML at $15, will net US$456 million.
Meaning they will still control 50% of CRML via their 51% holdings of EUR and can declare a dividend in EUR where their holding of 51% comes up to around $233 million, meaning they control 51% or EUR and indirectly 50% of CRML for an investment of only US$ 7 million!
of course all of this is on the assumption the share price performs and maintains where it is. but at these prices it is a no brainer already.
Current EUR share price should be around AU$0.86 to match the CRML value or about AU$ 0.70 with a 20% discount, which should not be the case. However EUR has other assets and projects as well and when it starts producing, profits should take the share price of CRML higher, which indirectly means more value for EUR too.
