There is two distinct markets being developed: So China won't...

There is two distinct markets being developed: So China won't really need to ban, they have always worked on the spot price manipulation, and subsequent taxing to exclude others in the market. I belive China will keep a large fraction of the countries of the world that are not so well regulated or still developing. It will likley be cheaper - for reasons noted below.

Eastern Market 1: I believe China are already placing a 'tariff' of sorts on the ROW. They don't have to publicly come out in retaliation. The strategy is simple. Decrease the spot price (which they are doing) for the balance of the concentrate producers around the world. This deems these suppliers unprofitable, and then they continue with their low cost (human rights/slave labour issued) supply/expansion in Myanmar. The product out of Myanmar has doubled in the last year.

They receive very low cost concentrate from Myanmar, the ROW concentrate suppliers are than worthless to compete or at best supply to China at unprofitable prices.

China will than add their taxes to sell to the ROW that has not a mandated ex-china supply chain policy. But for those countries with policies that have mandated supply diversity, then market 2 is now open for business.

Western Market 2: Over here, ARU sit, the new market, one that is highly regulated with regard to ESG, and genuine spot market for pricing. It will take many years to build, but the demand will be high, so will attract a premium, as it is no longer acceptable by OEM's to purchase downstream materials with a supply chain that is using slave labour,and foul environmental practices. Nor is it good to allow a monopoly that manipulates spot pricing. This western market will be mandated as the only source of Magnet/Lithium etc. for many OEM's in many countries. It will take a while to get active due to the complexities and IP issues, so in many respects, there may be several large players who group their skillset.