STX 2.22% 23.0¢ strike energy limited

Your guess is as good as mine :) Just some wild figures: 2019 WA...

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  1. 646 Posts.
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    Your guess is as good as mine

    Just some wild figures:
    2019 WA gas price is $4.09/GJ
    Add $1.44 transmission cost, then an end-user would be paying $5.53/GJ
    STX's transmission cost is $0.34, so they should be able to charge $5.19/GJ
    Add 5% inflation from 2019 - 2022 to end up at $5.45
    Then subtract whatever discount CSBP would be getting for the option and being a foundational customer.

    Then possibly subtract a discount because of the current low gas prices.
    Then possibly add a premium for the possible future supply shortage.

    I'd guess $5/GJ would be in the ballpark.
    Plus or minus 10%, so $4.50 - $5.50; but IMO the figure is more likely to start with a 5 than a 4.
 
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