Ann: CTM Market Update, page-9

GS said their revenue seems slightly softer, but their EBITDA quite a big higher, and margin much higher than expectations. Their outlook for their CAGR eps was something I missed, but obviously a strong outlook statement there too.

Got the below from Commsec!

CTD reported its 1Q24 trading update today and reiterated that it is on-track to achieve FY24 consensus across Revenue and Underlying EBITDA. Key takeaways are as below:

• 1Q24 softer revenue but stronger margins: Revenue and Other Income of A$188mn +36% YoY (vs 1H24 GSe run-rate of +49%). Underlying EBITDA of A$56.6mn +157% YoY (vs GS 1H24 run-rate of +128%). EBITDA/Rev Margin was 30.1% vs GSe 1H24 of 27% and up 14.2% YoY. The company talked to a seasonally softer quarter for CTM given Northern hemisphere summer, though revenue to profit conversion going to plan and noted that the run-rate is on track to meet FY24 consensus. GSe FY24 Revenue is ~A$810mn and EBITDA of A$254mn, largely in-line with Factset consensus.
• FY24 seasonality: 1Q24 EBITDA of A$57mn is ~49% of our 1H24e of A$117mn and 22% of total FY24e of A$254mn. The company updated that the 1H/2H profit skew is now expected stronger than the 1/3 skew originally forecast, GSe skew is at 46%/54% 1H/2H.
• Positive longer term growth: CTD talked to large clients in NA, ANZ, EU gradually improving and reconfirmed its record EPS growth year in FY24 and every CTM region is expected to surpass A$2B TTV. CTD is targeting a mid-teens double digit EPS CAGR beyond FY25, which is above GSe of mid-high single digit EPS CAGR.

GS View: We reiterate Buy on CTD largely due to continued recovery in Travel (albeit recent channel checks suggest slightly slower in corporate travel), and the added industry penetration and concentration to SME travel management, which is CTD???s key business focus.