Looking at this update closer:
This implies that the workover took over 6 weeks, as opposed to the 4 weeks they originally forecast (and well beyond the 2 weeks they quote here). So they expected things to take longer than normal (by western country standards) but it took even longer again. Not unusual for MAY though (these guys will run late for their own funeral).
They note the multiple productive reservoirs, which you have highlighted here. I presume that they are talking Unit 1A, 1B (Upper) and 1B (Lower). Their plan was to re-perforate 1B Upper, and add further perforations to both the upper and lower parts of 1B. That is, 3 perforations across around 196 metres extending from circa 750m to circa 1030M (allowing for circa 80m of two 40m gaps). The TCP pipes that appear in the Operations Update of 4th March 2025 seem to support these rough estimates.
All we know so far is that the completion was pulled without incident, that the perforations (and re-perforation) was performed successfully, and that the first acid wash was performed before/around 4th March. We know nothing more than that. But we do know that (a) there were no indications to suggest that the perforations did not fire or did not adequately reach the reservoir, and (b) that the company reported "Preliminary indications of positive impact". I assume that "Preliminary" is also an indication that the acid wash had only just commenced on/around 4th March.
What we don't know is how the acid wash performed in terms of increasing the productivity of the well. This quote, from the company, seems to indicate that the work is "complex" and could be interpreted to mean that they have encountered some problems,. But equally, it could mean that the company is taking its time due to the need to isolate each zone and independently stimulate each level (hence the use of the words "complex operation", and the impact that this has on timelines). To me, it also indicates that as as the time of writing they are still performing these operations and have not either started or completed flow testing (which takes a few days), hence the timeline of either later this week or early next week for some sort of update which will most likely seek to update us on the resultant flow rate for A2 (the objective of the workover).
Given the time lapsed, it is also clear - from satellite images - that Pad 9 construction is well underway. Given its location to the current pad, Pad 2 will not require the same level of logistics and should be completed shortly (if the timelines are indeed correct). Spudding of Amistad-2 will most likely then take place sometime in April, and we should also expect to receive an update on that shortly.
Market has drifted off, but volume is low (not leaky-boat style selling IMO). Small Holdings share sales will also have weighed-down the sell side during the past 4 weeks. So we have come from 2.7 to 4.1 and back to 2.7 - the anticipation rally has been snubbed out by liquidation of small share packages (up to around 20 million, as an approximation) and the delays which have caused some short-term holders to sell, based purely on nerves (or lack thereof).
For my money - circa this 2.7-something level is a good chance to re-load if you haven't already (all IMHO, of course).
Patience people - we are not far away from A2 flow results, from spudding of Amistad-2, and from knowing more about off-take agreements and the financing of the current program.
Regards to all holders,
Kit.
Expand
