Just following guidance from the company - which I reposted from last 3x 4C's and Annual report last few days - leads to some interesting outcomes.
If you take guidance on face value there is >$4m in prospect from Abiomed and similar from Nova with some other deals cooking. We ended last Qtr with $787k and just took on board A$2.5m so lets imagine ~US $2.5m to start the Qtr. This is about 1/3 of our market cap meaning there is A$6m value placed on prospective future cash flows.
We need to use our imaginations around how revenues scale but in the charts and commentary provided we know 2 things. 1) Abiomed are ramping up sensors and that alone could reach $1m / Qtr, adding bench products back (after inventories at their site decline) could be $1.2-$1.3m per indication of >$4m. 2) Nova expected to place orders and receive shipments either this quarter just gone or next.
I don't know how costs scale yet but I've just had a crack at it below. Any thoughts on this appreciated. If we move to profit we begin to build cash.
For this Qtr (Q1 22): If Abiomed has upped orders and now includes the bench product could hit >$1m alone. If Nova product is in this qtr could exceed. I'm expecting Nova orders started flowing this Qtr and see their cash next and to come in. My guess total ~$1m. Break-even / minor profit. Nothing amazing but good progress.
For next Qtr (Q2 22) expecting backlog/inventories at abiomed to have cleared (during this qtr already gone) and therefore bench product + sensors to reach $1.1m (company indicates "in excess of $4m"). Nova shipments of ~$200-300k. Other customers $100k = ~$1.45m revenue and potential profit >$300k. Now we're moving. Cash building.
Q3 22 Abiomed $1.15m. Nova $500k. Others $150k. Possible profit ~$500k. Cash pile building
And so on. See below - all guesses DYOR.
Is this the same company we're talking about here valued at $9m and trading at 2.4c ?
If this is wrong, then there's A$3m cash to cushion a slower build up. If it's even close to right, SE1 is about as undervalued as you get.
