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Forgive my “contrarianism” but it seems that choosing to buy...

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brrrattt

1,078 Posts.

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09/04/20

16:03

Post #: 43976858
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Originally posted by joewolf: ↑

I would not touch Carnival with a 12-mile barge pole, essentially the investments are only 29% so 5% is around 5c and I have written that off. I don't see how Carnival makes it to the other side and even if they do I don't see Americans getting on cruise ships any time soon. It was a good idea and hopefully, they don't keep putting more into it. It seems like they have been topping it up to the 5% level as it falls - they exhibit my bad ideas like averaging down. When timing is bad my view is that great managers actually cut their losses - the thesis is broken. Does anyone believe that a cruise ship doesn't spread disease easier than on land?

These floating buckets - which I would have also invested in have had a fundamental flaw and that is that its a hotel with cheap seats but expensive addons and now we are seeing them - Medical treatment with passengers having to find credit cards to pay the bill just to get off the boat. The ships owned yet the captain and crew decided not to leave as they want real hospitals nearby. Carnival wants us to think they are Australian but have a flag of convenience - they are not Australian and we shall see where this ends.

I am not sure that the airport investment isn't a bit early - I think it is a great idea but I am hoping they exercise caution on timing - everyone is just looking to past valuations and next years earnings but I still see a dirty great hole we have to climb out of. Everyone on the ground states it's far worse than the GFC yet they are thinking it's all over in a few months - Pollies don't like being wrong and yet want to be optimistic so why do they all state we will have to live with this for 6 months if it's all over in a few months. I suspect they are correct that we are in this until at least early June and then opening up has to be as slow as the 3 months it took us to realise how serious it was - August .. How many of you remember that on 2 Nov 2006 the XAO index was 6727 and that we only hit that again in Mid June 2019. This fall was faster because we all ignored it - including me and I was not just wrong but probably stupid - I never saw increased risk in cruise ships yet everyone knows it is a place where stomach bugs and other bugs can spread in the close confines of a ship. I applauded their opportunistic investment - I was wrong. A bad investment that probably has around 10 - 12c invested at least and only 5c left.

This style of investing doesn't seem to underpin the defensive posture they were trying to portray. Everyone likes the report so I am in the minority but the signs are a bit concerning for me.

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Forgive my “contrarianism” but it seems that choosing to buy investments like Carnival means they ARE doing what their namesake suggests.

accumulating back into this one. Purchasing any LIC at cash backing means you get the investment portfolio for free!

This thing has really changed to the positive in my opinion given;

- they have abandoned the conversion to a “credit fund”
- they are choosing real contrarian investments LIKE Carnival.

i for one am happy they are looking at the medium term and approaching with trepidation. There will be plenty of distressed opportunities to put the cash to work so this is ticking boxes!

CVF Price at posting: 72.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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