awss,
3P oil includes 10% probability stuff, and the market also knows that the margin on any oil produced by the JV likely to be little more than 10%.
Anyway even if the market is saying ALL CVNs EV is for the JV oil that is only $115mm, a mere 2.5% of your irrelevant dreamland $4.67 bn.
For the "potential" of Warro the realistic sales price is about $8/mcf, it's WA prices that apply, and the 2.5% is after costs so not like the oil at all.
Reserves credibility and costs are the issue here, and in the case of Phoenix the farmdown loss.
I stand by the figures in my last post as illustrative of the realistic potential of success at Warro.
Patience seldom works with oilers. I am hoping it does here at least in recovering some losses.
EL
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