Being a long term holder of CTP sure is a roller coaster ride, and if the Share Price is a reflection of the competence of past decisions from board and management, once again we need to hang on and see if the latest decisions will be great, or will we just keep bobbing along.
The biggest issue with Central has always been, what hydrocarbons does our vast acreage hold, and what is the most commercial way to exploit the possible opportunities?
In an announcement on 27 Oct 2015, a target of 1,000PJ was laid out as part of the GAP (Gas Acceleration Program). The exploration phase described PV Deep, Mereenie Deep, PV West, Ooraminna & Dingo Satellites as the source of at least 420PJ of this program.
In an announcement on 10 Aug 2017, a drilling program was announced targeting a "most likely" additional net reserves of 320PJ. This included the Mereenie Stairway, PV Shallow (PV13) and Ooraminna. While it appears much of the drilling money went to fund subsurface facilities, unfortunately the result of the actual drilling money provided <10PJ of bankable 2P reserves.
And now we have a new plan, targeting a "mean" net reserves of 505PJ, plus 60mmbbl oil & converting 54PJ to 2P. Some locations have been previously described (PV Deep, PV West) and some are completely new (Orange-3, Mamlambo).
Our conventional drilling success has been very poor with the original vast CTP acreage. The majority of reserves to date have been purchased (ex. Magellan/Santos), with the most probable new reserves coming from Qld Coal Seams.
Under the management of Leon Devaney, Dr Duncan Lockhart joined the company on 8th April 2019 at Exploration GM, and he is now throwing his hat in the ring with this new plan. With reasonable cash flows in support, and Leon looking to have a steady hand at the wheel and a desire to let others pay for the exploration, 2020 appears to be the big year.
And so once again we wait, fingers crossed. With the results of Dukas now likely to be quite a wait, the only short-mid term SP boost appears to be the firming up of the Range reserves, otherwise it will be hard to see the SP breaking out of the 20s anytime in the coming 12 months.
That may be quite a reward for those who invested recently, or got in while the SP was under 14 cents, but the road for many long termers will continue to be slow...
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