Ann: Cyan Increases Scheme Consideration to $2.70 per share, page-20

The earnings acceleration of the underlying business and its implications for the business are worth considering when thinking about valuation.

On 25/3/24 the board entered into the 'implementation deed' in which we were informed that the bid was x7.7 EBITDA and they assumed same again EBITDA earnings for H2 as H1.
[The H1 EBITDA figure was $57m and was released on 22/2/24.]

On 18/4/24 in a trading update The full year EBITDA range was increased to $136-142m. So in about 3 weeks the H2 EBITDA figure was increased from $57m to $82m using the new mid point forecast.

Then on 13/6/24 in a further trading update the full year EBITDA range was again increased to $146-149m. This increased the H2 EBITDA forecast to $90m using the new mid point forecast.

In H1 with $57 of EBITDA the company paid off MMA's entire $83m of borrowings.

With earnings improving so rapidly in H2 we will be in a substantial cash position.

Yesterday's increase in the bid of 10c amounts to $38m, which is less than 3 months of EBITDA earnings made by the business , which is still accelerating.

Everyone has their own time horizon, but if you sell MRM, what company with earnings accelerating at this rate and no increased competition in sight for the next 2-3 years, valued currently at what will be a historic ~x5.9 EBITDA , will you replace it with ?
Remember Tidewater the company Moelis said most resembles MMA trades at x9.6 EBITDA and is can inferior quality business.

MMA offshore is an absolute cash fountain and the company will be able to pay out significant amounts in FF dividends and capital returns, all without affecting the earnings power of the company.

I will therefore reject the bid and any subsequent bid below $4.45 fair value.and that is without mentioning a change of control premium...