I also attended and spent considerable time with Anna and...

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Insiderunner

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07/03/25

16:50

Post #: 78178149
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Originally posted by Inzaghi88: ↑

Replying to you both.Hey sorry for the radio silence, been busy with personal stuff going on. Anyway I went, and yeah I meant questions for the team at the conference. Directors were in Canada I believe but they had the geo there and Anna who gave the presentation. Natalina as for your questions around valuations well no one can say why the price is not the same as the peers yet, but these are all loose indications or benchmarks that we use to compare and contrast and see if something may be undervalued. So, that's the reason why we're all here. Because the opportunity is comparable to something else we have seen that has attracted a huge valuation. But that needs time to derisk and play out. The deal was a big element of derisking but there is still a further derisking, you just move on to the next milestone. Now it'll be about the feasibility studies etc. Any surprises to the downside there could be a risk. It's economics you can't do anything to mitigate it but these have been done in the past and we can get ideas around what to expect by lookign for clues in other things: previous studies were with less favourable inputs and came to a $7bn NPV at 16mtpa production (from memory). We're well past those numbers now so we should see that reflected when the work gets done. But it takes time. Furthermore, Vale wouldn't get in bed with a junior for a project with a $6bn Capex unless the NPV was multi multi billion dollars. And the MC is going to be a function of that figure. Small caps are very on the nose right now so there will be a lot of risk coming off the table but this project is still what it is. I wouldn't like to see it go below 5c. Staying above that is just a healthy retrace.

Re the questions - I'll just report what I uncovered and it should probably answer a few of the questions you've both outlined.

1. They're very confident that the only realistic scenario being looked at with Vale is the scale up to 100mtpa over 10 years scenario. They are going for the full kit and kaboodle, as I suggested in my original post I don't think Vale would muck around with a medium size coke, so this has been confirmed as far as talking to the team and getting their educated guess - this is where we are heading.

2. I don't believe CLE directors have been selling. I'm pretty sure the vendors are still buying given it had not run as high as they believed it should have post announcement. So, they are still buyers here. I also bought more in the 5s and 6s.

3. Selling price is basically $50-$60 premium to iron ore spot price.

4. Didn't ask when the first payment would come in. Apologies.

I personally think CLE would be taken out before getting to production - there's nothing wrong with that at all given it has to be at market value and if we're at that stage when Vale buy our 25% out, it should easily land anywhere between $250m-$750m MC i.e. 25c to a $1. The deal was smartly done and stipulated they couldn't buy us out until after phase 2. But I can comfortably say I was getting all the right signals from them and they seem very confident that they are on the right track with Vale.

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I also attended and spent considerable time with Anna and Co.

Quietly confident and very enthusiastic with the project potential.

@Inzaghi88 has given a great summary.

I also have been adding in the 5s and 6s.

Thank you sellers.

CLE Price at posting: 5.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last 6.0¢		Change 0.002(3.45%)		Mkt cap ! $64.83M

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