I think this is a fantastic agreement for CLE. Without it, you would have been diluted at lows and most likely would have been a stranded asset with little chance of funding. Most logical ending I see is a buy out at 'fair value'. Hard to determine what that price will be and how shareholders will benefit from the current market cap.
Vale are committing $18m USD now for drilling and PFS.
Then have an option to spend $120m USD to proceed further to earn in 75% of the company.
This structure gives an opportunity for an early exit if they don't think it will be a viable project after phase 1.
Vale has therefore valued CLE 25% at $46m USD. Which is pretty close to its current market cap.
Will CLE's 25% be worth more after the completion of the BFS, will Vale even proceed after the PFS?
Will CLE be able to fund the 25% capex to maintain their share?
If not, what does a fair value or dilution outcome look like and how does it impact the share price?
Fair value??
What do you think the NPV is going to be at the completion of the BFS? I'm just grabbing a random $2bn USD?
CLE 25% of that NPV would be $500m USD.
What is fair value of a BFS that you can't fund? Would 20% of the NPV be fair value?
That scenario gives a $100m USD market cap.
Personally I won't be investing as to many unknowns for me,
If you have a position, I think you need to work out what a final outcome looks like and if you're happy to hold for that target.
I wish holders the best and will be keeping an eye on how it plays out.
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Ann: Cyclone Metals and Vale execute Development Agreement, page-60
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Last
5.8¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $62.67M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
5.8¢ | 6.0¢ | 5.8¢ | $193.8K | 3.293M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 311000 | 5.7¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
5.8¢ | 36409 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 311000 | 0.057 |
2 | 908901 | 0.056 |
5 | 300334 | 0.055 |
1 | 100000 | 0.054 |
1 | 200000 | 0.053 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.058 | 36409 | 1 |
0.060 | 695311 | 6 |
0.061 | 100000 | 1 |
0.062 | 200000 | 2 |
0.063 | 200000 | 2 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 16/06/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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CLE (ASX) Chart |