Finally got a little time to give this announcement its due.
Truly DCN management and staff can sit above most in the mining sector, they have discovered, built and now produced a product all within a 5 year period. A rarity above most considering how few actually build a plant.
* $200m spent and on budget. No easy task!
* Hit their first pour target as forecast 2 years ago (another huge rarity).
* Hoping to hit commercial production in the June Quarter
* ROM stockpiles of 200,000 tonnes.
* Grade control results within the next 2-3 weeks (perhaps a small chance of upside %)
* Further resource and reserves updates to come.
* Potential to include future Cameron well ore into FY2019 production (that is not far away!), so DCN must be fairly confident of mentioning this.
* 30-40k in the June Quarter is actually above what I expected, as they really are only just turning the plant on.
(It will be very interesting to see how conservative DCN will be with forecasts etc, they will def not want to over-promise, or under promise too much).
* $50m in liquidity after pouring first gold is an excellent outcome, I posted back in Nov 2017 that I expecteed $40-45m, instead they have beaten that -
DCN Nov 2017 post - not bragging, just happy to see they beat what I hoped for).
* Hedging - Already had 52k at $1789, but that does not get delivered into until July 2019 onwards. So the new hedging is prudent, albeit a shame why missed the spikes to $1750 AUD. The 45k simply means that approx 23% of the next 12 months gold is hedged at $1727.
DCN have done so well so far, can they now pull everything together to ensure they have a successful quarter of production? I feel pretty confident. If they do, at what point will the market (the big end of town), start throwing money at DCN to bring it more in line with valuations like NST/EVN/RRL etc?
One very simplistic measure I use, is MC versus 100k pa of production. NST plans to produce around 600k p.a but has an MC of $3.8billion, or is valued at $633m per 100k. Therefore... if DCN gets close, it will be a billion dollar miner. I don't think I will ever understand why DCN was not T/Oed much earlier once the project was much more defined....
