It has now come to this.
This company is not only a value trap, it is a forgotten value trap! Can anything be more insulting to a company's pride? Trading volumes in their shares have died at a still pathetic price. If that was not bad enough, even management seems to have left this dog to rot away...no more buy backs have been executed. All the 11 million share buy backs have moved the share price by a princely total of 1 cent.
Meanwhile, the fundamentals for coking coal keep getting better. The June 2019 forward price tried hard to move below US$185..failed miserably, and is now $190. And the forward prices keep moving higher. So while our very competent management is busy burning our cash flow in ostensibly protecting us from the ravages of capitalism...I mean by "hedging", Mr. Market keeps getting ever more horny. June 2019 is of course the financial year end for BRL...and the fact that even the June 2019 price is now US$5 above what BRL management thought was "super high margin" is already being pronounced as a woefully low price by Mr. Market.
And lest you think that this is going to be all over after June 2019, there is bad news for your views. December 2019 price is now about to break to new highs...we are at US$185, and the chart looks uber bullish!
All this, mind you, even before Emperor Xi Jinping lets the dogs out...I mean switches on his infrastructure spending taps in full glory. Most likely after they come back from their sozzled stupor after Chinese New Year...February 11 is the restart of decision making in the Middle Kingdom.
Meanwhile, there is serious change happening in the met coal import markets. We have a new champion when it comes to met coal imports: India...BRL's big customer. And we have a celebration of Democracy coming to that woefully infrastructure short economy. Which means Mr. Modi needs to "bribe" his currently unhappy voters before May elections send him into a coalition government..spend whatever he can in the next few months. After the elections, India should also let its dogs out, as the private sector breathes a sigh of relief...and they in turn let the dogs out.
All quite strange...
(20min delay)