Ann: Daily share buy-back notice - Appendix 3E, page-5

Long term holders have seen many such moves from these guys
.
They will balance their aim to accumulate against the price they pay - their purchases are moving the price simply because the stock is so illiquid.

The facts you state are true - the short term price fluctuations are anyones guess. Could go up or down.

If that's your game, may as well head to the race track.