Too right it is a good long term bet. I wouldn't even use the word "bet"
It's just a matter of time before S32 runs higher in my opinion. It could start tomorrow, or could be two or three years from now. What's more I'm not bothered by when it happens.
An ASX20, Perth based company which pays franking credits, dividends, has a rock solid balance sheet, cash in the bank, buybacks, competent management, and exposure to: aluminium, copper, zinc, manganese, nickel and silver. A who's who of future-facing metals. No iron ore, gold or heating coal. Metallurgical coal has been our cash cow lately. A great development pipeline. It's a unique basket of commodities. There is nowhere else in Australia to get such a diverse base metals exposure without buying a number of smaller, speculative stocks. S32 is special. And I'd bet a lot of investors haven't even heard of it before. Including the lithium bulls. Also, BHP or RIO won't ever attract takeover bids; they're too big. S32 on the other hand may well do in the next few years; and at a very large premium.
My portfolio is a mess of stocks that bear little resemblance of a balanced portfolio. Too many REITs. Too many resources/energy. A couple of boring consumer staples. A badly out-of-favour and underwater retailer. A couple of tech ETFs. Probably too many small caps. I've missed the memo about core/satellite stocks, barbell approaches, and various conventional intelligent strategies (probably to my detriment!). I suspect S32 will one day be my biggest position.
I bought two small amounts of S32 in the high $3.90s. The next point for me is $3.63. And if it gets below $3.50, I'll be both surprised and excited. S32 is a decade-long hold for me. No trading. Keep gradually accumulating on the present weakness. Accumulate heavily on significant weakness. If I become too overweight/exposed, maybe I'd consider trimming slightly above $5.50 (a problem for another day at current levels!). Obviously none of this is advice. Only my opinion about the stock. I could be totally wrong.
I think you've done the right thing buying a stock you're keen on today. The amount of times I've waited for a magical round number (e.g. "I will buy at $10.00 exactly") only for the stock to drop to $10.15, look really cheap, then rebound to $17.00 without me... I still haven't learnt that lesson. It's dumb. It's how I missed SFR before Mr. Market decided it needed to suddenly be much higher than $3.50 last year while I sat and waited for...something.
I'm of the view that all downturns are inevitable and temporary. Rates will be cut at some point. If the economists really knew what was happening with interest rates they'd all be millionaires. So many different opinions and reasons NOT to buy. So much negativity. I see an economic rebound being as inevitable as downturns. And the economic rebound with its demand for metals will be supercharged this time with inevitable decarbonisation demand; and extra growth in China and India.
Please excuse my enthusiasm and lengthy, barely relevant post. It's been a rough past few days stock wise. I'm looking for some positives. Of all the stocks I own which have fallen in the past week (too much red in my portfolio currently), S32 is the one I have zero long term worries about.
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