BGL first pour announced 26 Oct 2023 - SP $1.41 or a MC of $1.66b - but one needs to increase that for POG increase since then which is about 30% plus need to allow for gearing to POG which in theory should mean more than 30% increase in SP.. Using 30% increases the SP to $1.83 or $2.15b (funny how that is today's price). Jury is out on BGL costs and there is concern they may be significantly higher than DFS hence the SP decline from about $2.05.
SPR is looking like it will have a bigger resource than BGL and lower cost. ATM SPR has 2.5m Oz and BGL has 3.1m Oz. SPR has a much better orebody for mining (ie lower cost), no debt and significant upside in resources in the next 12 months before it has its first pour. My own view is SPR has potential to have a NPV of its deposit being 50% better than BGL - not for a 4.5m Oz deposit rather the amount of gold that can be extracted which for BGL is less than 2m Oz (I believe its only 1.85m Oz) ie SPR could easily have gold that can be extracted of 3m Oz by the time of its first pour - this is my view BUT its speculative in nature. BGL may have a resource of 3.1m Oz @ 10g/t but it gets diluted to only a grade of about 6 g/t in reserves and indicated resources. SPR with a much better orebody will have a higher rate of conversion of resources to a reserve and mineable gold than BGL.
If I am right the MC of SPR could reach in excess of $3b by the time of first pour - so $2.7+ SP is possible by end of 2025 but definitely not a certainty. Could it go higher than $2.50 - yes especially if POG goes up significantly which is projected by many experts and if my 3m Oz ends up a lot higher (which I believe it will - this is my bull case).
Other comparisons are CMM and EMR which have low costs ie AISC $1,200 - $1,300 which have a MC of over $2.06b and $2.6b but both only produce 120k Oz pa but do have other mines coming on stream in next 18 months -3 years which will boost production.
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