I have recently read 2 books from Ray Dalio the Billionaire hedge fund guy from Bridgewater which I understand has been the most successful Hedge fund in history. While it’s full of Economics, inflation/deflation and markets (bond, equity, gold, etc) it is a vivid travel through many hundreds even thousands of years of history of many countries. He and his team did a massive amount of research to produce these books.
I highly recommend anyone read the books to better understand the big picture and especially what is happening in the USA and western parts of the world. The two books are:
”Principles for dealing with the changing world order - why nations succeed or fail” - Once you read this book plus his subsequent follow ups (you can see them on his website as he publishes frequent updates) one will note that the USA has all the traits of being in its decline - the parallels with history and the fall of great powers is quite incredible. From trade wars (ie tariffs), to build up of huge government debt (subject of another book below and a massive issue), reduction in international competitiveness, external deficits, inequality, potential of civil or external wars, etc. he looks closely at the stage the USA is in its decline. They are 5 stages and USA is in the fourth stage and may enter the 5th if there is a civil or external war. All the falls of great powers in history have very similar characteristics chief of which is the build up of huge debts.
The second book is about big debt bubbles “Principles for navigating big debt crisis” - in this book he goes through history and dissects past debt bubbles as a way of learning from what may happen to the current debt bubble in the USA and many other countries - they do not end very well and some result in financial disasters.
He makes a case for holding hard assets like property, gold, good quality stocks, etc when there are big debt bubbles that may collapse.
After reading these books it is clear the next 40- 50 years are going to be nothing like the past 40-50 years of stability, low inflation, very good investment returns, limited wars, etc.
I read the debt book first as it paves the way for a better understanding of the first book.
These books may not be every one’s cup of tea but I learn a huge amount as I have studies economics and markets in my occupation.
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