Hi Rumju, I do make the asumption that TNG will go into production and you are right that asumption is conditional on a number of events coming to be.
One is finance, and the finance proposal is layered.
I also agree that the precise quantum of CAPEX is very much unknown despite two DFS's and many words. The four BOOT components of the Refinery from the 2017 DFS have a combined costing of $562 mill.
With the exeption of the pigment plant there has been no mention at all of the other three components andb whether or not they are now within the TIVAN finance package or remain outside.
There is also other contingencies that may add to any overall costings including working cap and debt servicing through the construction faze. Against that some reductions in previous CAPEX figures appear available like modifications in the Refinery Plant.
The reality is as you say the fugures are unknown.
What founds my belief in TNG getting to production is the broader picture of Supply and demand, coupledbwith the changing landscape innsupply source of both V and Tio2. Increasingly it seems that supply will rely on titanomagnetite resources. That factor seems to be one of the drivers for SMS.
The other factor that is i think a positive for TNG is the current figures do give the lowest costing for production of the combined commodities for production as against traditional production methods. I cant see the likes of Atlantic Windimurra project or the Todd Corp Bella Bella project not doing DD here for obvious reasons. I do dismiss some other publicly listed projects as on even my nieve back of the cigarette packet calcs the margines for profits are fine and risks of tanking high.
Finally i do hope peeps take my posts for what they are, just my amateurish thinking following lots of reading, research and viewed with a glass half full mindset. It is in the end the ballance obtained from reading a range of posts that will help form others views which is what HC is all about.
Always good get ballance from you and others. Regards.
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