I haven’tbeen on the thread for a while but thought I’d give my two cents.
I qualifymy comments that we are all speculating until further information is provided howeverI will say that yesterday’s announcement was totally adequate disclosure by TNGand without providing the required detail, it has IMO created an uninformed market. Also abysmal timing for it to come out that Burton has jumped on as a NED on another board when the NTEPA came back with a request. Apart from the timing of Burton, I actually take this as a positive given my views that Mt. Peake doesn’t get to production under our ownership.
On the EIS, what a frustrating outcome although not unexpected given what we experience with theMt. Peake approval. It could be as simple as an information request for further detail that they need to complete their report to submit to the Minister or it could be a time vampire with 12 months of testing and data. As someone else eluded to the amount of information in the supplement is mind boggling and you would have thought any sort of data that would result in delays like experienced at Mt. Peake would have been captured in EPA response to the draft submission.
Anyway – likeyou all I am eagerly awaiting either NTEPA getting something on the website of TNGgetting proper and transparent disclosure on EXACTLY what is required andEXACTLY how long it is expected.
If its anyconsolation, I have a pretty large exposure to mining company in Spain that havebeen working through the approvals process since 2016 and still only getting tothe final stage. The company has had a cash burn in that period of near enough $100m…..all they have done in that time is public and government consultation to advance the project. I've got a couple of black eyes and broken ribs from that one!
Movingalong as there is still plenty of positive work flows that can continue whilst AnimalPlanet/TNG work through their information request with the EPA.
It is now acouple of months since SMS advised they couldn’t finalize the refinery FEED by endof March so that is expected imminently. I’d be very disappointed with Hubert and SMS if they can’t get this done soon, COVID or no COVID.
As I understandas soon as that CAPEX is known, the figure goes to NAIF and Kfw for final DD (theyare not starting from scratch) and a decision on finance might be as little as12 weeks ( or end of September quarter). What’s a billion in debt do to our enterprise value!
I suspectthe crown land may have a precondition on EIS – my rationale is why would yougiven a commercial quantity of land away for $1 if there’s nothing approved tobuild.
It been oneof the most unpleasant journeys I’ve been on in investment and like you all I’mjust about at my whit's end with TNG distain for its owners however I do absolutely agreewith Jonathan Fisher’s statement in his recent interview, people don’t realizehow close we are (or something like that).
There are 4keys deliverables:
FEED/productguarantee, Finance, EIS and Land ……….. at that stage you have a fully de-riskedproduct with an extremely low cost of capital funding with NAIF and KFW andthat is when the true owner of Mt. Peake and perhaps TIVAN pops out with anoffer.
Frustrated likeyou all and it certainly seems not one thing in the last 10 years has goneshareholders way but we are close. I said to a good friend and fellow investor yesterday that we are the closest we have ever been and I'm the most comfortable I've ever been on my highly convicted view. I had a punt recently and picked up a million odd options.
GLTA andlet’s see the next announcement from TNG of what exactly is required and the FEED very soon.
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