LYC lynas rare earths limited

Ann: Date of Quarterly Report and Briefing, page-4

  1. 8,411 Posts.
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    i actually agree with you, partially. ASP will be up substantially because sell price will be based on Q4 prices normally there is a 90 ~ 120 day delay From placing order to invoice. Plus they will suppress La and CE production in favor of NdPr which always raises ASP. I suspect that water problems have added between 30 and 60 days to this delay. So now 120 ~180 days delay. Q2 will be the real test. Prices will be much lower for NdPr and just a little lower for Le &Ce. Look at the charts. So JMO Q2 revenue will be less than Q3 2022 by a lot. Even if they match Q3 Production rates. I doubt they will achieve NEXT but even NEXT rates will not let them match Q3 '22 revenue. i actually think SP will do better if they do not reach NEXT. If they don't people will still say wait till they hit Next. Most do no math to see what it will mean. If they do it will become very clear that NEXT is not enough so earnings will not grow for several years. People will see just how dependent Lynas is on REE prices and have little control over Profits and Revenue. This is what happens when you are a little fish swimming with a veracious eater that 4 X bigger than you.

    Why put out charts right before a Q report? Would it not be better to wait for Q report and include that data? Of course if you want to put out positive data to raise unjustified hope then maybe best to do it now. I am sure you will put in all your usual qualifications then say well what I assumed did not happen so of course I am wrong. People like what you predict so much they never worry about that.

    I would suggest you look at the Q4 report https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/LYC/02542718.pdf Look at several Qs of ASP and mix of NdPr to other REE sold think and add that to your data. You will also need an REE price chart.
 
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$8.25
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