ARU 2.86% 17.0¢ arafura rare earths ltd

Ann: Date of Quarterly Report and Briefing, page-62

  1. 230 Posts.
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    First of all, I give a big shout out to birch for sharing all the information. It is not only typing some memories of a conversation into HC but I know it requires a thoughtful perpetration and recap of everything said and discussed in an obviously intense conversation.
    thanks!

    what I am trying to get my head around is:

    as retail investors in mining sector we all know that explorers, juniors or whatever stage before real production and revenue streams need money injection and not few unfortunately.

    now having had several of these Capital raises in the last 10 years, when is enough is enough?

    now sitting at 0,13 $, which is indeed (just to factor in the last two CR 2022/23 (big) and 2023/24 (tiny) just 0,10$ taking into account our dilution here:

    - how „big“ and I mean literally big like significant earthmoving should the next announcements be to raise the share price to much higher levels knowing that we will have another big capital raise in April?

    - a significant CR like 200mil aus$ would require a share price of 50cents to only add 400million shares to only have a dilution of additional 16% shares giving we have 2.500 million right now.
    - if the raise is done at 0,30 the same calculation would lead to additional 26% of the current amount of shares.

    - the raise needs to be done at 0,7 $, to limit the dilution to additional 280mil shares.
    - and let’s not forget the typical options scheme and on-top shares that goes along with a CR

    again, what news could bring shareprice to a level of 50cents? Like 4times from today’s level? Not to think of the 70cents (march 2023 level)?

    it’s midnight here and I am not having a sleepless night so will go to bed again.
    but will do this with a big question mark.

    I think the need a good capital market expert be because the way it has been in the last 5 years should not continue

    a quick one: a potential bold message to lift shareprice would be:
    (1) we (Aru) go into production and first revenue from our own mine on 3rd January 2025 and nothing is gone move this date.
    (2) we (Aru) have identified additional secured (!) revenue streams of 400mil per year resulting in 100mil additional Ebitda due to xyz …
 
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