Ann: DAYBUE net sales US$66.9 million in Q3 2023, page-8

Good to see some normality return to the share price but long way to go before the market gives us any sort of reasonable valuation!!!

The Acadia webcast is a must listen with some great questions asked of the panel, the days are certainly gone where one had to listen to the whole presentation before 1 minor question would be asked about trofinetide... as has been mentioned first 6-7 questions were about Daybue with some good questions among them; Nuplazid and other pipeline definitely attracting much less interest.

My points to add to the conversation:

* Just over 800 patients have had prescriptions written as at sept 30. Acadia reiterated total Rett patients in US number 6000-9000 with 4500 registered. Focus now moving to getting treatment to the significantly larger proportion of patients outside the major clinical institutions that have been responsible for the "pent up" surge that has seen Daybue launch far exceed analyst expectations

* This pent up surge will decrease going into next quarter and then uptake will decrease to an ongoing slower linear growth. Hence forecast 80-87.5 million for Q4

* Ongoing positive patient testimonials akin to what goldenchook has been posting for us

* 80% of covered lives have formal reimbursement plans in place. There have been a proportion of denials from insurance companies essentially because Daybue is a new first in class drug - expect these denials to become permissions as proof of drug causing clinical improvement becomes apparent in real world via letters of ongoing clinical benefit from treating specialists etc. Some insurance companies require this at 3 months others at 6 or 12 months treatment duration

* 81% of patients are still taking Daybue at 4 month mark. This compares to 65% during Lilac 1 trial. Increase put down to support from Acadia's patient hub particularly with management plans in place to manage adverse GI symptoms etc

* Question was asked about potential peak sales of Daybue - answered that it is company policy not to give peak sales estimate numbers but that expected to reach Nuplazid levels "or higher"

* Question was asked re ROW progression - meeting with Canada this month to discuss IND application, ongoing conversations with Europe and Japan about requirements to get treatment to the larger Rett populations outside of US. Comment was made that pricing "may be a little different" but this will be part of the discussions going forward over next few years. Also will be looking at the various smaller opportunities to grow Daybue in rest of world ie outside Europe and Japan

My take - obviously an extremely positive update. Nice to get some colour around the potential moving forward although to be honest none of it came as a dramatic surprise given the baeline knowledge available on this forum...

Neuren is in the enviable position of watching it all unfold and counting receipts as Acadia seemingly works pretty hard and efficiently at getting the Daybue snowball rolling. Assuming Q4 sales of $85 million Neuren will make well over $50 million AUD next year in royalties alone without allowing for any increase in numbers or milestone payments. $500 million sales for the year requires an average of $125 million per quarter which is clearly in play. Good times ahead that is for sure.