All good loki, as always I appreciate your views whether they...

All good loki, as always I appreciate your views whether they support or are questioning of mine.
I believe from memory (not sure if it was announcements, conference, interview) that Mike mentioned that the debt facility would have the ability to be re-used for developing Glenburgh. So, with approx $31m in cash, plus the $60m debt facility, they have already spent approx $40m so they only need further $50, leaving them with approx $34-38m around May next year when the gold is supposed to start pouring. I am also going to assume that the first debt payment is not until Dec 2018. So GCY will have time to finish commissioning, possibly 5-6 months of full production before any debt is paid off. By then, according to GCYs timelines, Glenburgh will start getting built in the 3rd Q of 2019. Giving them over 12-14 months of production. The first 2 years are going to be the lowest AISC for the project currently, in my opinion, well under AUD $1000. Admin etc is included in this, although I will budget $5m for the re-working of Glenburgh, then another $10m in exploration over that time. The interesting thing about the debt facility is how long dated it is. Simply, it has a 4.5 year life and starts this month. So, it will be paid out by mid 2022. 18 months after Glenburgh is in production as well. Without doubt, that is a long time frame, but I see no reason why it cannot be hit. Its not like they really need to do a lot of work on Glenburgh (I think it will end up being similar to Dal - so capex of say $100m, as I bet they will put in a bigger plant), they simply want to firm up the numbers with exploration.

So... very rough so please, be gentle.
End of 2017 - cash - $30m Debt zeroish....
End of 2018 - cash - $47m. Debt $60m. Explore $10m Glenbrugh feas study $5m
Ounces produced in Calendar 2018 50k AISC ($1000) margin $650 approx Profit $32.5m.
End of 2019 - cash - $88.5m Debt $60 (assuming fully drawn) (or paid down and cash down equally)
Production approx 110k AISC $1000 - Profit $71.5m
Glenburgh development/long lead items $20m Exploration $10m
End of 2020 - cash - $68.5m Debt $60m (still assuming fully drawn) (or paid down & cash down equally)
Explore $5m
Production 100k AISC $1000 - profit $65m
Glenburgh dev - $80m

Wishing I had done it all in a spreadsheet, but... eh, got started and could not quite stop. There will of course be interest payments on the debt, but even at 8%, on $60m that is $4.8m a year, but it could be less as I doubt they will sit with 80m in cash.

Dalgaranga has no big costs until year 3 currently ($10m) so again, while I am no soothsayer, I think GCY is in a very strong position. As you say, then you have the potential for GCY to benefit from any higher POG prices. I am a little bummed they were not able to lock in more hedging above $1700, but its still far better than poor old SAR who hedged 300k at $1400-1500 a while back.

Happy to see the share price start to climb. I hold all my favourite developers for the next few years now (DCN, GCY, KIN). Who will outperform in the long run, time will tell.