SRN surefire resources nl

Ann: Debt for Equity Swap with Mutual Holdings Pty Ltd, page-8

  1. 14,924 Posts.
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    In the simplest of terms currently SRN does not have enough cash to pay out the legal obligations to Mutal Holdings (controlled by Vlad). That payment is about $3.304m plus 2 times $650k for a total of around $4.6m.
    The final $1.3m was not a confirmed liability at 30 Jun'23. It seems like it is now.

    If as proposed in the notice today, Vlad gets 700m new shares of which half are fully paid and the othet half are callable for a $0.0079 per share equity payment ( total $2.8m)

    In aggregate Vlad is going from approximately 20.2% shareholding to 40.2% shareholding and giving away in value $8.4m being $5.6m foregone payments +$2.8m equity injection on partly paid shares (350m).

    In accounting terms the balance sheet is $8.4m stronger with more cash ( +$2.8m) and less liabilities ( -$5.6m).

    The downside is Vlad doubles his equity.
    Based on today's market cap of $16.88m Vlad is spending $8.4m to get 20% of $19.68m which is $3.94m.

    This is very messy to try and understand and we need to see the final Notice of Meeting.

    My take is that Vlad wants to tidy this up quickly, confirm his approx 40% shareholding in SRN and get ready for a big equity injection once the various Saudi JV Agreements are in place.

    The really big question is what will be the SRN market cap be once the deals are done.

    If for example the MC settles at $200m and the Saudi's inject say $50m for a 25% share and get 600m shares the following splits would apply

    Vlad 1,034,000,000 shares @6.3 cents per share
    Saudi's 600,000,000 shares @6.3 cents per share
    Retail 1,541,000,000 shares @6.3 cents per share

    Retail market cap would be $97.1m vs $13.5m as at 17th Jun'24
    That is a 619% increase in market cap just for retail shareholders

    Please do not take my numbers based on preliminary estimates and illustrative estimates as gospel. This is not financial advice. Just using this example to try to understand what may happen in time.

    Cheers......Daicosisgod
 
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