I agree that these situations are completely different. In the case of ADN (and AVL for that matter) the PFS economics are not that much different to the DFS/BFS (i.e. the post tax NPV and FCF are in the same ballpark). The problem is that the market was expecting so much more. Reading through the ADN forum it seems that the CEO had hinted that the DFS could be 3 to 4 times the PFS - I'm sure not everyone expected this but many were probably expecting something in between (certainly a lot more than the PFS).
In the case of QPM our current SP is undervalued compared to the PFS metrics (which I am hoping the DFS will improve upon because the CEO has hinted at it, just like the ADN crowd, BUT I am happy/confident (probably "ok" is a better word here) with my investment even if these numbers don't improve. There is a big difference between a company that is 18% of it's NPV and a company that is 100% of its NPV at the point of DFS/BFS (granted ADN is closer to production).
Note: In the case of AVL they have excluded contingency in the headline capex number in their BFS but not in their PFS - I have added it back in there for them (just in case my capex numbers look different to yours).
Best of luck brophlofsky, sorry to see you go - I'm sure you've done well here.
QPM Price at posting:
19.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
