"1G = win 2G = win 3G = win 4G = win but now people think 5G = lose?"
I do see your point, but i think everyone loses in the transition, there is big capital expenditure and few customers, the new technology has to run at a loss for a certain period of time before it reaches breakeven, and then makes enough to payback previous loses. Telstra can afford to lose more than their competitors, so it will maintain its top position.
If the leader(s) can keep the pressure on margins for long enough it can help prevent competitors reaching that payback phase, and they stay on the back foot forever.
3G was where Hutchison came in with 3 Telecom (?), so they could win. 4G was where Hutchison was losing, and Vodafone thought they could win by merging. 5G is where Hutchison and Vodafone are losing, and TPG think they can win by merging.
What will 6G bring ?
I think TPG could have broken that cycle by focusing on metro fixed wireless and not trying to compete on every mobile front, but now i expect the merger will sink them too, because now they have to aim so high, they will carry all the baggage of previous transitions, and will probably now have to face the prospects of raising fresh funds (post merger) in a hostile market.
The biggest winner is the government with there spectrum sales, money for nothing.
TLS Price at posting:
$3.16 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
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