yep, company is in death spiral. Strategic decisions have killed...

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Pat07350

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02/03/23

06:22

Post #: 66551014
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Originally posted by precis: ↑

We produced just over half of guidance at an AISC of $2639. If we are to end up with an AISC of $2300, and produce roughly the same amount this half as last, it follows AISC will be $2300 - $339 = $1961.
So we might make $700/oz on say 40,000 oz for $28 million or $14 million a quarter. When you start deducting Capex spending and loan repayments etc it's hard to see cash rising by much. That's the reality. The Board must be squirming or perhaps it lacks empathy with the plight of shareholders.
They'll sell us the equity raising as "in the best interest of shareholders", but you can't believe them because that's what they've always said and it has proven to be lip service. They could reduce their own remuneration and that of the top execs, they could relocate the head office back to the Cobar region, they could reduce the size of the Board....they could do something to prove they aren't just looking after themselves, but they haven't.
Federation to be more accurate has close to $3billion of metal in it rather than the $2b mentioned earlier on this thread. I took the guidance ounces or tons of metal the resource contains and multiplied it out by the guidance metal prices at the time, and metal prices are now much higher, especially for copper and zinc which will be great earners. However, it's what was always there prior to Dragues and it should have taken us to a SP of $1. I still don't know what has happened to the 20kt of dirt we mined from it as a tester. Probably it is low grade because they won't have accessed the ore bodies, so may I ask what all that was about? It was hyped up, then nothing.
There are four keys to getting this ship off the rocks, 1. is reducing spending by some of the measures I mentioned earlier and perhaps delaying some capex spending not directly necessary to get federation rolling, 2. Getting to the rich federation ore bodies as quickly as possible. Thank goodness they aren't deep and we haven't got far to go to reach them 3. Finalizing finance without the need for massive dilution, while at the same time, ensuring we have a buffer of funds to safeguard against the unexpected (another tax injection is likely at end of Q3 and that could prove helpful), and in tandem with this 4. Getting all approvals and giving us dates for both mining and processing to begin.
A ship on the rocks is in a precarious position, which underlines the incompetence of the last 2 years. It will take a lot more than a good December to get us floating again and one heck of a lot more for me to trust this Board again. At the moment I've no alternative but to hold. But I must say it isn't a lot of fun sitting onboard a vessel stuck on rocks.

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yep, company is in death spiral. Strategic decisions have killed company and operationally its a terrible company. I would not believe anything they spruik.

sack most of head office and relocate it. Sack most of the staff where they have contract mining in place like Dargues.

They won’t though. They will just hold on to the end collecting fat salaries while share holders suffer

AMI Price at posting: 11.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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