The headline story should actually have been:Whitehaven Coal...

The headline story should actually have been:

Whitehaven Coal Benefits from Overseas Supply Shortages. Own Supply Issues Arise from COVID & Weather Events

This update can actually be compared to what has happened in other industries as well. Think about cars, toilet paper, RAT's etc. A shortage occurs on the market which increases prices and companies think they could sell more if only they had stock. In the case of coal there were various issues including weather events in Indonesia in 2021 with a new government supply restraint in 2022 and also issues in China as well which resulted in a coal shortage followed by elevated prices. Go to a car dealer now and try to get your hands on a new car and you'll be told there is a long wait due to COVID delays, semi-conductor issues etc and the car companies all think if only they had more stock they could sell double and without discounting and the dealers profits margins are a high levels at the moment due to the supply issues but in reality the Australian market hasn't changed from a 1 million dollar a year market to a 2 million car per year market and when supply resumes to normal levels the discounting will start and profit will drop down.

The supply issues from most miners is continuing to sustain higher price levels for coal. It's not realistic to think that Whitehaven will somehow be the only miner that doesn't have supply issues whilst everyone else does, not just in Australia but in other markets. Why supply 25% more coal to make 50% less profit because when supply normalises the price is going to drop - the only question is how far & if it is 'only' to $120 USD then that's going to be a good medium term level for WHC. Yes when the profit update comes out in the February report it could have been higher with more production but I doubt anyone only looking at the profit figures when they come out next month is going to be saying WHC can't afford to do something to add to shareholder value such as a dividend, share buyback or investment in new mines.

The most likely approach this year is full payment of debt in Q1 2022 which will please a lot of people that aren't comfortable with debt in general, savings to be put away to pay for expansion such as the Winchester South project to bring benefits in the future which is my preferred project as they probably won't do Vickery at the same time and lastly a dividend to reward holders & to support the SP as without one it means that WHC is a much less attractive share.