Ann: December 2016 Quarterly Report and Appendix 5B, page-8

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01/02/17

20:35

Post #: 22300271
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Originally posted by cmonaussie ↑

Well an "interesting" Qtrly report - quite lite on detail. Will await the 10Q to see if it has more details. A HY and Reserves report will also help and they aren't to far off.

Couple of observations ...

Dec Qtrly has FB oil only at ~765 bopd (not interested in boepd). Relatively close to the 800 median in the "Value" post which carried an implied share price of US$0.72 - so current share price is close enough to fair implied value (or is it?)

Dec Qtrly has avg commodity price of $42.07 BO. WTI average for Q4 was $48.66. Avg Bakken discount approx $6.59 ... so in line with what Qtrly is saying.

Going back to the value post, the median operating Netback estimated at $27.39 --- how close is that based on the $55 BO avg for 2017.

WTI ($48.66) = Op.Netback ($?) + Discount ($6.59) + Cash Op Cost + G&A ($7.30)
Solving for Op.Netback

Op.Netback = $48.66 - $6.59 - $7.30 - LOE (est $30.20)
[LOE estimated as AUD ($2,773,000 x US$0.75) / 68,865 Bbls

Op. Netback = $4.57/BO (excludes interest costs ad development - assumed as Capex)

So a LONG WAY TO GO to improve. The problem is with production and LOE costs and the perennial G&A is still to high. That FORECAST SUBSTANTIAL GROWTH in production in Q1 from recompletions, fresh water cleanouts and well optimization cannot come soon enough!!

The carrot regarding the 2 laterals testing Ratcliffe and Mission Canyon formations is just that - a carrot. (SSN does not have the liquidity or cashflow at present to do this. This will change post debt renegotiation completion and (expected) equity raising).

That said, $0.004 per share looks like good buying for speculators pre balance sheet reorganization.

GFTA

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Thanks for the post, what amazes me is the amount of supply from 0.005, it is relentless! Gets soaked up though!

SSN Price at posting: 0.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Ann: December 2016 Quarterly Report and Appendix 5B, page-8

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