Spot on, and net margin still 61.7% despite disclosed issues. If...

Spot on, and net margin still 61.7% despite disclosed issues. If you look at it another way...

In 6 months time, they will have circa $434m of whisky at 61.7% net sales margin = $267m which is slightly behind current Mkt cap.

this is before they upgrade NSR which I have disclosed in prior posts I think is on tract for at least a 10% increase (I.e. the $434 will be closer to $475/500m come full year result)..

Interesting to note additional 250k litres in maturation vs June (some would have been from third party)... But assuming a similar run rate (pre new distillery construction) will be adding over $100m of whisky per annum to the bank..... they will be laying down well over 1m l per year when the new distillery is online.. Adding closer to 200-250m to the bank annually... So this gets moving in a hurry.

Play it out for 4 years, should see close to $1.25b of whisky on hand (of say $750m $GP) June 2026. And if SP keeps pace with $GP whisky on hand (which will by up 2.85x then SP could be $4.30 * 2.85 = $12.25... Can justify this market cap with a 7x sales multiple (not abnormal for an acquisition target that is growing sales strongly in this sector) on $100m of sales in 2026 (which would be a pretty conservative sales result given export expansion plans).

Obviously higher sales rate reduces hisky on hand, but makes the sales multiple more attractive, and the brand a more attractive acquisition.

This is with $216 NSV.

So the investment proposition is simple.

1. Can they crack the export market - Highly likely, they are targeting much larger markets than Australia, just a small presence will dwarf domestic sales.
2. Can they maintain NSV (or increase it) - with their target export markets opulence (China, SE Asia, Middle east an North Americas) this is highly likely.
3. Can they lay down the whisky - this is the most certain element in the mix barring a distillery fire and access to funding (funding wont be a problem, they will get debt easily, and CF positive soon enough to fund operations and ongoing reinvestment into new stock).

Additional upside will present from additional bolt on acquisitions (which will also expand their flavour profiles and decreased site risks)...

Very interesting few years ahead.