Oh so that was you who was buying so many this morning at 5.5¢ . Pokies, huh? You should have put the $600 into Aristocrat Leisure!!!
I have spent some time this week looking back at old DEL announcements and the dates of constant broken timelines before the Palisade financing. 2022 was a totally lost year. I've noticed how the capacity of the AD plants has grown since the first (RichGro) plant. QLD1 is projected to be the biggest yet. I'm at home trying to recover from Covid so a little light DEL research was called for!
Then, I took some screenshots of the earnings projections made by Dabozza and Emptytrolly 18 months ago on old DEL HC threads in 2021. I also found a couple of Reddit deep dives with projected earnings out to 2028. And projections on DEL announcements in 2021 of IRR, revenue, opex, etc. I suspect one of the Reddit DDs is Emptytrolly's fine work. Back when holders were filled with optimism.
The projections assume a share price almost 4 x greater (24¢ vs. 6¢) than now. It doesn't take much (just a couple of million in recurring, sticky, predictable revenue) to make the shares start to look quite attractive @ $12 million market cap . Our NTA wouldn't look too badly either with half ownership of two $25m plants.
I also took a deep dive into RichGro and Ecogas's LinkedIn pages (highly recommend). RichGro has a partnership with its local council to take organic waste from businesses. Ecogas has been processing tonnes of wasted food from the recent natural disaster. BLM is exporting energy to the grid. All three plants seem to be operating very well. I maintain that we build a great AD plant.
I've come to the conclusion that if the figures quoted on Hot Copper 18 months ago are even partly correct now (earnings for a fully operational SA1 and VIC1), at a 75% lower share price, we'd be in very good shape. This is, provided one is prepared to totally ignore the previous announcements of SA1 and VIC1 being in construction, write-off the past 18 months, give DEL a clean slate, and accept that work WILL commence in the next couple of months as currently claimed. If one works off the FY22 announcement timetable for 2023’s anticipated build schedule, and uses 2021 projected earnings, no debt, $6m in cash, and fully funded, the narrative looks better than it did. If, if, if....
If this holds kinda true I'd be happy. We just need construction to start. 12 months build time + 3 months for commissioning. Then straight into construction of the next two. I don't know where VIC2 has gone though. It's dropped off the radar!
