Mate, I wouldn't exactly call myself bullish! I guess I am too loyal to the stocks in my portfolio. I do a lot of research before buying anything, and when I take a position in a company it's for a reason, rather than because I think the share price will go up. I have been giving DEL every opportunity for my/their thesis to play out. I started buying a small, hard-hit retail stock a few months ago. Unfortunately, its share price looks similar to DEL's. It is requiring a lot of patience and resolve to continue holding a contrarian investment in a weak market! "The price is falling" is never a good reason to sell.
To pull some numbers out of thin air, the idea of $4m in recurring revenue ($1m per plant, per year, for SA1, VIC1, QLD1 and NSW1) on a $10m market cap company (at today's prices) is very appealing. I have nothing to support $1m per year. It just seems like a kind of reasonable figure to run with. I'm not too bothered about the short-term share price...within reason. After the Palisade announcement in October I bought a small parcel at 11c -- just before the trading halt and retail division closure announcement. But there was a reason for the purchase -- anticipated imminent construction of the two flagship plants.
You are correct about the possible outcomes. From 4 cents per share we could easily 10x and trade at 40c in two years' time, with millions of dollars of recurring revenue per year, and tens of millions in valuable assets. We could also go to zero if nothing gets built. It feels like a coin toss. Everything depends upon Palisade FID. I would love to double, triple or quadruple my holding at these prices but management give me nothing to hang my hat on, in terms of a reason to average down. Although if it re-tests 4c I may be tempted to buy another modest parcel.
Of more importance than the share price is *progress*, and my trust that what management has been saying is true. Whether that constitutes *actual* construction, new announcements, new EPC contracts, website updates, or conference speeches, I don't care. At the moment, there is a total void of information. Even the website hasn't been updated since October 2022, which is inexcusable. Statements made in releases to market seem to contradict historical statements. Directors aren't buying. It is pathetic, and it's no wonder many/most have lost patience. Although the relentless selling of DEL shares seems to have stopped, at least temporarily.
I follow a small mining stock which regulary posts 45 minute video updates of their demonstration plant, Q&A, discussion of the commodity prices and expected demand for what they plan to mine, offtake agreement progress, etc. with accompanying PPT presentations. And the M.D. often replies to e-mails from shareholders personally. They e-mail shareholders with updates, update their YouTube channel regularly, etc. The counter argument is that DEL is within the timeline they announced in October 2022 and we already have all the information we need and that anything price-sensitive would have been released to market.
The directors seem to be taking, not just the Mickey, but sizeable salaries for themselves. I read on the Liontown forum (not a holder, unfortunately) a poster praising directors there for taking low salaries and share options for many years while they conserved cash to grow the business. You expect some results for $400,000 each per year, otherwise one gets the feeling this is a lifestyle company. I doubt Palisade would have invested $5m if that were true, but it's hard to escape that feeling.
I like the idea of being able to follow the Edinburgh site progress, as a shareholder of the company, and as a Crow-eater (sorry
). It will/would feel like I am a part-owner of the enterprise as my AD plant slowly takes shape.
Let's hope we are both proven wrong, as we watch and wait for the proposed developments to take shape.
