Accounting types please correct me if I'm wrong, but based on statement that $550m tax bill for FY22 is due and payable in Feb 23, and they will start paying PAYG in June 23 quarter, this implies they have paid minimal tax for earnings for this year. They may have in excess of $700m tax liability for 1st half, and most of this will be payable on catchup by July, with balance needing to be paid after returns go in next FY. If coal prices come off they will need to keep cash in reserve to pay this tax liability.
So really of the $2.5B in cash holdings, half is probably a tax liability from FY 22 and 1st half 23. They will not pay this out in dividends for those looking at the cash balance and thinking they will get a $1B + dividend for the half. My bet is they may pay out $500-600m in FF dividends so maybe 60-70c/share, and same again for end of year if cash flow similar. They will budget a further $1B for buy back for next 2 quarters, and that will chew up most of after tax free cash flow while maintaining appropriate cash in bank
IMO, DYOR
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Ann: December 2022 Quarterly Report, page-44
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