You are correct that there is a big tax bill coming. But it is...

You are correct that there is a big tax bill coming. But it is not at all a big issue. A few posters are fixated on the 20-50% NPAT pay-out ratio as if it is one of the ten commandments. It can and will increase, rather easily at the discretion of the board.

There are a few things that we know now that the results are out.

1H23 Figures
Realised price: A$552 per ton.
Less Cost: $97 (as mentioned in report, cost for 1H is at lower end of the range)
Less Royalty: 8% ($44)
Total EBITDA Margin: $411
Equity sales: 6.3Mt
Total EBITDA: $2.9 billion
Less D&A: $130 million
Less tax 30%: $870 million
NPAT: $1.9 billion
Divided by 890 million SOI = $2.13 EPS for the half year

- With $2.5 billion cash in the bank, that equates to $2.80 NTA backing per share in cold hard cash.
- Tax is accounted for and the cost for share buybacks has also been factored in.
- I am expecting at least a $2 per share dividend for this HY. Anything less and I will consider it theft, which rightly ought to be met with righteous indignation.
- We would be left with over $700 million cash in the bank, which is more than we need to be frank! It is more than 5x the average amount held over the last few years when there were more SOI and a substantial amount of debt.
- Expenditure on upcoming projects is miniscule, with about $19 million going towards development per QTR.