I've plugged in the actuals in the model for the last 6 months based on this report, and computer says expected half yr div of $1.04, PE 2.3 (annualised) and div yield 22% (annualised). This is based on (actuals) equity based sales of 6.4mt for the half year, with average sale price of $A552, payout ratio of 50% and total cost of $135/t. Result is lower than previous estimate given equity based sales are lower than I originally estimated. It's a simple model but the estimate is now better with actuals used. Some uncertainty regarding payout ratio and the split of ordinary div and potentially special div as others have alluded to. Numbers also look encouraging at potential medium-term average coal prices of $US250/t if the forwards are anything to go by. Go WHC! ps. doesn't appear to be much daylight between libs/labour these days re approach to miners - hence my previous commentary on this topic.
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