Yep its moving up, I expect this could get up to $ 375 - $ 400 per tonne pretty easily with Chinese demand now coming in.
Geez the Qld government must be rubbing their hands together with their egregious royalty grab last year. Qld produces around 220 Million Tonnes of coal so the current regime would be sucking in now about $ 11 billion per annum with where Coal prices are currently. The old regime was capped at 15 % of $150 per tonne, so this old regime raised circa $ 5 BN per annum. So that is an extra $ 6.0 BN per year coming from Coal to the government.
Interestingly the entire surplus for the Qld government for 22/23 is projected at $ 5.0 BN, basically the extra Coal impost. Despite all this extra money the Qld government is still projecting debt to blow out from $ 11.0 BN in 21/22 to $ 39 BN by 25/26. The clowns truly cant manage money. With all the extra coal royalties by 25/26 the State should have net debt trending towards zero but there will be an insane amount of spending ( and of course waste) on the Olympics, mental health now is the latest thing requiring a ton of money thrown at it along with of course hospitals.
Anyway back to SMR rather than bitching about the Qld government.............
Bear in mind that SMR produce a blend of HCC (hard coking coal), soft coking coal (SCC) and PCI (pulverised coal injection). HCC usually is the premium grade and fetches the highest price though the fall out of the ukraine war last year and its effect on the European energy market saw PCI actually higher for a period.
After doing a bit of fishing around online my suspicion was correct, that SGX futures contract is based on a HCC specification. So by the time you allow for lower prices on the 60 odd % we produce of PCI/SCC grade, our price could be a little lower than that reference point. Here are some references if your interested in more details ;
https://www.sgx.com/derivatives/products/coking-coal?cc=ACF
https://www.slideshare.net/TimHard/tsi-coking-coal-factsheet
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