I'm not sure I'd quite shoot mngmt just yet although I wouldn't necessarily put the gun awayA few of things:
1. The price of gold more recently has been trading at around US1900/oz. By itself that should add say another US$3m/qtr to free cash flow
2. They really do need to get ASIC back in a box. They are sticking with the forecast US$1370 for the year. Interesting. I expect they'll issue a revision but if they achieve that for maybe the next 2 qrts, then that notionally will add another US$2.7m/qtr to fcf. I think getting AISC back to something nearer US$1400/oz is plausible and is and should be a mngmt objective. I understand interconnect level 6 and Tigerway did bring some operation issues during the last qtr and so production impacted ... remove this, restore production volumes and we should see a push into the US1400's next qtr.
3. The Tigerway decline looks to be on time on budget. Reportedly, the local crew is supposedly doing a stirling job and just grinding away quietly and efficiently. I think if mngmt can hold true to this then happy days down the track.
I doubt any dividends this half and I expect you'll need to see 1 and 2 above hold true for dividends in the next half. I think the allocation of cash is and should remain : 1. Tigerway decline; 2. Dividends; 3.Capital buyback. (I think funding capital works exclusively from operating flows is enough on the capital account
Looking ahead, I'm watching for mngmt just getting the basics right and being and being seen to be doing those things right ... without the distractions of the past 9 months. If they do, I think happy days are yours to be enjoyed.
And it's not about cycles, it's about management!
Have a great day.
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