Agree with the previous posters. CF boosted by gov grant, net...

Agree with the previous posters. CF boosted by gov grant, net sales down. At least they have provided some commentary rather than just stating a number and running. I must admit I was concerned that there would be a much bigger retracement than 7% (I was expecting a bad result would be down 25%, which would have then still been 15% CAGR on 2021, but short termers would have been shocked by the reduction to PCP....

We are cycling a very strong December (a record) and H1 last year... remember H2 last year was up 78% on the prior year on restocking for Covid opening, and online sales going nuts at Christmas.

IMHO, This is quite an acceptable achievement to hold sales up as they have with the headwinds domestic travellers now heading back out of the country and duty free when coming back in... Silver lining in the result is margin has improved on H1 last year (61.7% increased to 68.6%). And core line sales are growing very strongly (Symphony and Cask). I think the message between the lines here is they have been trying to do too much with the rare and special releases and they are flexing back to doing a bit less but doing it better, and they have ticked that box this quarter with christmas release, and growth in core. As previously shadowed, they are going to grow the core range with the brand refresh which will take some presure off the rare releases and allow them to drive volume via the core range, and top up margin and enter awards with the rare releases, thats how it should be run..

Interesting to note that sales into Asia are expanding (in terms of regions) but no comment on sales $ or pricing or margin, I expect we will see this separated out with the new CEO, and when there is sufficient scale to warrant it.. Also interesting that no core range released into asia, on rare and gin.

I would like to see some more info on the new distillery.

Current SP reflects the performance for the half but does not at all factor in upside as asia expansion ramps up, and definitely not any takeover premium... New CEO cant come soon enough..

Now trading at circa $76 per litre of maturing whisky... This is actually less than Larks cost of production...

Consider NSR last yr of $269, and current 66.5% margin (again LY), this implies gross, direct cost of production of circa $90.11c... In other words, that is the implied cost of matured inventory... It is interesting that in the current SP (mkt Cap of circa $170m) it could be argued that there is no value for the brand or the physical land and distillery assets (which would have to be worth $75-$100m)...Or on the flip side, the whisky on hand is valued at $75 -100m, pr $33 - $45 per litre, about what they paid for the shene estate whisky.... I have ignored cash, this just lowers that implied whisky valuation further....

Cheap Cheap. Hoping we see a bit of weakness and ill top up further prior to ne CEO coming on board...

GLTAH! all IMHO.... DYOR blah blah blah....

Cheers.