Looking at DEL with fresh eyes I think there is a huge buying opportunity here at these prices.
The Company now has a healthy cash balance relative to market cap and projects. The past two cashflows show that they are now generating positive operating cash flows in an operating environment where construction related costs have returned to more normal levels. These cash flows will be key to finalising talks with project investors. Operating cash flows will also materially increase with the YVW project now in the construction phase.
Even just using operating cash flows as a proxy for EBITDA and assuming H2 will equal H1 (i'd see this as a base case given increased operating cash flows expected with YVW in construction):
- EBITDA $4.2m
- Market cap $8.4m
- Net debt = $2.7m (Debt of $7.6m less cash of $4.9m)
- Enterprise value = $11.1m
TEV/EBITDA = 2.64x which is extremely low. A multiple in the range of 6x-8x would be much more reasonable IMO just on base case EBITDA, implying an Enterprise value of $25.2m - $33.6m. Market cap therefore between $22.5m - $30.9m and a
share price between 10c - 14c.
The next big announcement will be on alternative funding provided for SA1 & VIC1 which will wipe out the threat of the previous convertible notes. I read the 4c as they have received a number of offers and are finalising selection.
