Hey mate.
Will have to get back to you on potential capex to lift to 4mtpa. There hasn't been a lot of clarity from the company.
On the topic of expanding or continuing OP operations, keep in mind Mt Mann OP is being utilised, not North West Flats (important as some of the reserves would be from NWF). The reserves update from June 30th had OP ore of 3.4mt at 1.24%. 1.727mt of ore appears to have been mined since. That said, it is unclear how much of the OSP mined in FY25 was included in reserves.
Basically in answer to why stop OP? It's 2 fold. Firstly the pit is finite - the plan for that pit likely has only a couple more quarters of ore left. Secondly your assumptions seem underpinned by the extremely low strip ratio at the current pit stage, and averaging 1.3% grade which is above the OP average of 1.23%. Basically the December quarter had absolute optimal conditions for that pit. Pictures shared by LTR last year highlighted what appeared to be a horizontal slab of Spodumene covering the near entirety of the pit floor.
You asked about the grade of the OSP ore. I don't have a specific answer to you on it. The Dec quarterly mentioned average grade of OP ore mined as 1.3% in the Physicals Summary table. It is unclear if the ROM clean ore mined was greater than 1.3% and the OSP lower. They didn't split out the 2 in that regard. There was also a bit of a contradictory bullet point. I have highlighted it for you. In the one sentence it mentioned clean ore, waste and OSP, but continued on to state the clean ore averaged 1.3%. So there is a possibility that the OSP mined was lower than 1.3%. Regardless, the 15-30% contamination is of more relevance than the grade in my view.
One would expect that OSP with 15-30% gangue would have a negative impact on recovery rates, even if it were to have an average grade of 1.3%.
It is a big unknown as to what impact on costs processing the OSP will have, but I suspect much of it needs to be used to support the 2.8mtpa plan while transitioning to UG. Later in the call, Tony was clear that contamination is a focus, with a 5% figure used, so processing the OSP will be challenging. LTR have been clear in the past that there is a step change in plant performance when key feed criteria are held.
I noticed @anatol was suggesting (supported by his own tables) that in December LTR were processing 1.2% feed. That striked me as odd given the Physicals table (above) for the whole quarter stated an average feed grade processed of 1.3%. It is possible that, for example, in October / November LTR ran 1.2% and in December averaged 1.4% or higher. That would certainly be one explanation for the jump in recovery rate from October & November to December. It is also remotely possible that LTR fed the plant 1.2% in the month of December as Anatol claims, and offset that by processing higher grade in September and October (that would raise many questions related to the recovery rates of those 2 months).
LTR mentioned that in December and January some batch trials of the OSP took place. It would be interesting to know the results of those efforts in detail (cost and recovery). While we saw a modest improvement in recovery rates throughout the quarter, it was on the back of lowering final product grade from SC5.3 to 5.2. I do wonder how much of an impact the OSP will have going forward.
Here are a couple of relevant grabs from the earnings call where gangue levels of the OSP were mentioned and discussion of the importance of keeping contamination of feed for the plant below 5%.
.....
Back to your thoughts on expanding to 4mtpa. Focus is now shifting to UG. You would have noticed a lot of UG capitalised costs related to development in the latest quarterly. While the above ground capex might not be massive to get to 4mtpa, there would be required UG works to enable that level of ore feed. At current rates to support feed of 2.8mtpa, we saw capitalised UG development cashflows (and other sustaining) of $28.4m. Important to point out the UG costs were not included in operational cashflows, and is an ongoing spend to be aware of. Increasing spend in that area to support 4mtpa may not be wise in this environment. It was mentioned in the call there was around US$20t margin from an OP as good as it can get for KV. UG will undoubtedly be more expensive than the mining costs of the December quarter with it's 1.2:1 strip ratio.
Feel free to DM on X if you want to discuss further.
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