You have done very accurate great analysis
@CapitalKing. Thanks for your work again.
Actually the real positive net cash flow would be much higher if we could receive $11m payment of spod sold on Dec.25 (payment received in January) and could sell the saleable concentrate inventories around 25kt at Quarter end which would be around $25m. Then the profit would be $50m+. I think they didn't want to sell that 25kt cheap, probably they realised the increasing spod prices in Dec.
I'm now expecting over $50m + positive net cash flow for the March quarter, might be close to $100m if they sell all the spod stock they will produce.
The $36m ($11m payment + $25m inventory) have been already rolled over to March quarter. The monthly production is 36kt+ atm, then the total production will be over 105kt in this quarter. Plus the 25kt inventory from Dec.Q.
Then there will be at least 130kt+ saleable stock in this quarter.
At the other hand, we have 1.3mt at 1.3% grade clean ore on the ROM pad. That makes over 200kt+ spod concentrate. That also means that it's 6 months of ore feed stock for the plant. They can produce 100kt spod for each quarter with that, while the new clean ore will be coming both from the open pit and U/G at the same period.
If we sell 130kt in this quarter the revenue will be around $150m (including $11m payment of Dec. shipment) in March quarter by the assist of spod prices increasing recently over USD900/t.
I'm sure you will calculate the most accurate positive net cash flow for the March Q.
When it comes to those big instos, or BOET whatever you call them, but I call them crooks, the lithium price increase is not in their hands. It's an economical event, it's a cycle, a commodity cycle, even though Chinese gov is stimulating (manipulating) by its subsidies. The lithium price will go very high again because the investments in the sector halted. The same thing happened in 2021, and will happen again.
Those crooks might be preparing for the new Lithium V.3.0 spike. So they will downramp and accumulate. We all need to do our own research.
- I am expecting the Company to be lucky to break even from operations / sales, will depend on the timing the next load (TS Index) departs, another 15,000 dmt needed after the TS Index to hit sales guidance for Q3 FY25, but you dress your narrative however you please.
(20min delay)