My expectation is that LMG will
- spike on commissioning stage 1 or dive if any further delays.
- spike again on proof that hydromet process works at commercial scale(>85% Mg recovery)
- spike a little more when ingots are produced instead of MgO.
- dive if efficiency of Hydoment process is <80%
- Dip if they stay at producing MgO only.
Once they have released performance figures for extraction, share price will retrace to a new base.
What will that new base be?? It's a guess but I expect double figures(10-15c). The Demo plant will continue to produce product. Let's assume 1000tons Mg/yr equivalent, current price is about (AUS)$4,400/ton gives us revenue of about $4M/yr. It will probably be a bit less than that however we should get some revenue for SCM to compensate. So, we are looking at about $4M revenue/yr or about $1M/quarter. That will probably pay for operation of the demo plant and to test other ores particularly for stage 3.
Stage 2 on current plans will not be operational until end of 2025 and based on LMG's history of scheduling it will likely be 2026.
Stage 3 will not commence construction until 2026 at the earliest and probably production around 2028.
That tells us there will be no further revenue from production until about 2026(stage 2).
We are in 2024 so by midyear when we should have the demo plant in full swing producing ingots and performance stats, sitting at about $4M annual earnings, the price will likely begin to slide down to retrace to a new base and will likely sit there until stage 2 starts to get near commissioning. The big decision is whether to sell before that retrace to buy back in cheaper, or whether to just ride it out and hold until about 2028/29 for the big rewards from stage 3.
I would have to see a very big improvement in the management of LMG if I am going to hold until 2028/29. I'm worried that Peter Church went to the same management school as DP given the silence on the stage 3 investors due before Dec-23. From mid 2024 to mid 2026 will basically be an activity/revenue "dead zone" except for a few announcements about the planning for stage 2 and 3 and therefore the speculative component in the share price will be very small. It may be that for stage 3, there will be investors who will muscle their way onto the Board and start kicking a few backsides to get LMG moving which is what the company needs. Then I would hold.
Just my candid quick thoughts.
(20min delay)