Huh???
Agree using P90 is conservative but you're assuming a 100% drill success rate AND how did you arrive and the $30 margin ... its far from conservative IMO given the high degree of gas in the resource!!
Total F&D cost = $16.40 forecast
Using $65 Oil & $2.50 gas avg, 36% liquids (assumed oil) $/Boe = (0.36)(65) + (0.64)(6)(2.5) = $33/BoE
Estimated Margin = $33 - $16.40 = $16.6.
On a risked "P90 Basis" = $16.6 x 1.8283MmBoE = FCF $30.35M on P90 Basis
On a risked "Mean Basis" = $16.6 x 8.8989MmBoE = FCF $147.72M on Mean Resource basis
Done quickly so not 100% sure I'm correct here.
GLTA
Ann: Definitive Agreements Executed for Alaska Western Blocks, page-62
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