Hi all - I'm new to looking at CXO but very excited about the timing of their production coming onstream at exactly the right time vs many other juniors who are waiting until 2024 or 2025. I have some questions though if anyone cares to comment...
CXO seem intent on reporting pre tax NPV8 numbers in their DFS - I would have thought that post tax numbers are a more relevant comparison when looking at valuations - am I missing something here?
re the numbers themselves, what I take away is the following; (these are all quoted in the presentation)
using $US$743/t price,
Stage 1 pre tax NPV8 = $221m post tax NPV8 = $170m ie post tax = 77% of pre tax
Stage 1 + ESS pre tax NPV8 = $259m
Stage 1 + ESS + Fines pre tax NPV8 = $289m
using $US850/t (current spot)
Stage 1 pre tax NPV8 = $315m
Stage 1 + ESS pre tax NPV8 = $384m
Stage 1 + ESS + Fines pre tax NPV8 = $411m
Using the same 77% ratio of post tax NPV to pre tax NPV suggests that post tax NPV8 for stage 1 + Ess + Fines = $316m
using 1,174m shares on issue @ 29.8c gives a mkt cap of $350m and an EV of $309
This suggests that CXO is currently trading on 98% of its post tax DFS NPV8 for fully completed stage 1.
Have I got the numbers roughly correct?
my rule of thumb is that late stage developers usually trade on around 70-80% of post tax DFS NPV8, implying that fair value for just stage 1 = $220 - 250m ie we are currently paying $90 - 120m for the potential of stage 2 and stage 3.
How does that sound??
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