Hartley's latest report
Sandfire Resources Ltd(SFR $6.86) Buy, Re-Initiation of Coverage
Analyst
Date
Price Target
1 Steven Clark
6thJuly 2021
$10.00/sh
Please see attached for full report.War-Chested for Life After DeGrussa
Key Points
- The copper bull run has continued subsequent to our cessation of coverage of SFR in Oct’20:
- Copper prices have appreciated by 41% from US$3.06/lb to US$4.30/lb;
- A record high of US$4.90/lb was reached in May’21;
- Limited ASX exposure to copper production has been magnified;
- We have lifted our LT copper price forecast to US$3.50/lb (prev. US$3.00/lb);
- SFR has adjacently progressed the development of its Tshukudu Operations:
- The Nov’20 DFS for the T3 Project outlines avg. annual Cu in concentrate production of 31kt over a >12 year mine life;
- A Maiden MRE for the A4 deposit has been delineated at 6.5Mt at 1.5% Cu for 100kt of contained Cu;
- Initial upfront investment has been approved for the planned expansion of Motheo Production Hub capacity to 5.2mtpa;
- We model the following on our current commodity price deck:
- An uplift in cash and liquid investments to $622m as at Jul’21 (implied EV of ~A$630m);
- FY22 free cash contribution of A$415m from DeGrussa on our assumed copper price of US$4.00/lb;
- NPV8of A$3.14/sh for Tshukudu, assuming an expansion in Motheo Production Hub capacity to 5.2mtpa from FY25;
- Our SOTP valuation increases by 36% to A$12.54/sh at spot commodity prices;
- We see multiple catalysts for a rerating of the stock in the near term:
- Award of the T3 Mining License;
- Jun’21 quarterly result and Annual Report;
- Maiden Indicated Resource for the A4 deposit;
- Motheo Expansion Project exploration results;
- Maiden Old Highway JORC Rsc and Scoping Study;
- Potential resolution of Black Butte legal challenges;
- M&A activity;
- We Re-Initiate Coverage with a Buy rating and Price Target of $10.00/sh.
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- Ann: DeGrussa Operations Ore Reserve and Mineral Resource Update
Ann: DeGrussa Operations Ore Reserve and Mineral Resource Update, page-37
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$11.19 |
Change
0.280(2.57%) |
Mkt cap ! $5.013B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$10.90 | $11.20 | $10.86 | $5.085M | 461.0K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
25 | 2391 | $11.18 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$11.20 | 5121 | 10 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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20 | 7884 | 11.180 |
15 | 6680 | 11.170 |
11 | 4300 | 11.160 |
11 | 5859 | 11.150 |
8 | 3753 | 11.140 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
11.190 | 109 | 3 |
11.200 | 6197 | 13 |
11.210 | 5875 | 10 |
11.220 | 5284 | 7 |
11.230 | 7161 | 7 |
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