William - I'm not sure the banks would lend the money to build...

William - I'm not sure the banks would lend the money to build KOTH in the absence of forecasts being provided, and I'm not sure many investors would invest in RED if the company, or the brokers covering it, didn't provide some forecasts.

As for how the RED forecasts turned out, if memory serves me correctly, KOTH was expected to spit out about 200,000 ounzes a year - which is pretty much what's forecast for 2024/25.

ASIC costs are nowhere near earlier forecasts but that could perhaps be explained by how much higher the current gold price is now than it was expected to be in earlier the forecasts (I know one broking house was using AUD $2,500 per ounze a few years ago). The response from gold miners interested in seeing their business prosper "through the cycle" is to mine their lower grades when the gold price is high and store up some of the better grades for the tougher times. An outcome of putting through lower grade ore sees more ore processed to achieve a given level of ounzes of gold with a consequent increase per ounze in the ASIC of winning and refining the gold.

My personal take is that RED management are operating the business in a smart way. Traders in the stock may be unhappy with the approach but investors will appreciate it.